New traders obsess over win rate, but win rate alone tells you nothing about profitability. What pairs with it is the size of your average win against your average loss, the risk to reward ratio. Together they decide whether a strategy makes money.
A strategy that wins only four trades in ten can still be profitable if each winner is meaningfully larger than each loser. A strategy that wins seven in ten can lose money if the losers are huge.
Expectancy combines both: average win times win rate minus average loss times loss rate. Positive expectancy is the goal.
Define your stop and your target before you enter, then check whether the reward justifies the risk. If the target is barely larger than the stop, the trade needs a very high win rate to pay off.
Planning the ratio in advance also removes the temptation to move a stop or grab profits early out of nerves.
El ataque gana titulares; la defensa gana carreras. Proteger el capital es lo que te mantiene en el juego el tiempo suficiente para multiplicar.
5 min de lectura →Gestión del RiesgoUn stop no es una distancia aleatoria. Va donde tu idea de trading queda demostrada como errónea.
6 min de lectura →Gestión del RiesgoTener diez posiciones correlacionadas no es diversificar. La diversificación real reparte el riesgo entre activos que se comportan de forma distinta.
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